ISSI uses Hydro Nexus Analytics (HNA), the predictive Water Intelligence platform developed by Aegir Resilience AB within Lund’s research and innovation ecosystem.

The platform has already been presented, discussed and tested through activities involving several Swedish municipalities, including Lund, Helsingborg, Vellinge and Hörby. Together, these municipalities represent a population of approximately 340,000 people and a diverse range of urban, coastal, agricultural and infrastructural conditions.

This engagement has enabled the project team to compare the platform’s methodology with the practical needs of Swedish public administrations, collect direct feedback from municipal representatives and refine its analytical functions. The work has focused on how predictive analysis can support long-term water planning, climate adaptation, territorial vulnerability assessment and the prioritisation of preventive measures.

HNA integrates climatic, hydrological, infrastructural, environmental and socioeconomic data through four specialised vulnerability indexes—CVI, SVI, EVI and SEVI—which contribute to the calculation of the Overall Vulnerability Index (OVI). The platform translates this information into territorial maps, future scenarios, vulnerability rankings and strategic recommendations.

ISSI’s objective is to transfer this experience to Italy, beginning with pilot projects in Siena and its surrounding municipalities. The platform will not simply reproduce the Swedish model but will be adapted to local datasets, administrative structures, environmental conditions and socioeconomic characteristics.

Empirical Evidence from Scandinavian Municipalities

The Hörby Flood Simulation

The Hörby application demonstrates how Hydro Nexus Analytics can support municipalities in anticipating the territorial consequences of intense rainfall and potential flooding. The simulation compares three progressively severe precipitation scenarios—40 mm, 70 mm and 100 mm of rainfall—to evaluate how increasing water volumes could affect the municipality, its infrastructure and its communities.

The 40 mm scenario represents a significant but comparatively manageable rainfall event. It helps identify the first areas where drainage systems, low-lying land and vulnerable infrastructure may begin to experience pressure. This scenario is particularly useful for recognising early signs of insufficient drainage capacity and localised surface-water accumulation.

The 70 mm scenario represents a severe rainfall event capable of producing more extensive flooding. The simulation examines how drainage saturation, soil conditions and surface runoff could combine to affect roads, buildings, essential services and agricultural areas. It also identifies locations where an initially local problem could spread into a broader municipal disruption.

The 100 mm scenario constitutes the most critical stress test. It assesses the potential consequences of an extreme rainfall event in which drainage infrastructure and natural absorption capacity may become overwhelmed. The analysis considers not only the physical extent of flooding but also possible cascading effects on mobility, public services, local businesses, households and emergency-response capacity.

By comparing these three scenarios, HNA enables the municipality to understand how flood risk changes as rainfall intensity increases, identify critical thresholds and determine where preventive investments could generate the greatest benefit. The simulation therefore transforms rainfall data into practical intelligence for drainage planning, infrastructure protection, emergency preparedness and long-term climate adaptation.